PINSTRIPE
As it is clear that the SNP re-election juggernaut is pretty well unstoppable I thought I had better have a look at their recently published election manifesto to see what might be in it from an economic and business perspective.
What a disappointment. Lots of pictures of Nicola looking like a mixture of a small country’s president and the girl next door - she does it well. The content, however, is a different story. The usual vacuous phrases which inhabit all political manifestos but the document can be summed up in three words - Spend, Spend, Spend.
The SNP is in a very rare political position. Labour is useless and weakly led. The Conservatives in contrast are rather well led but have a disastrously toxic brand - would you buy Chernobyl breakfast cereal - no, I wouldn’t either. The Greens are fun but daft and Rise are daft and no fun at all. The SNP are going to win handsomely. This gives them the opportunity to be brave, to stake out ground which will deliver a more productive and economically successful Scotland even if some of what they say makes people uncomfortable. They have the opportunity - and they have fluffed it.
There is a tidal wave of spending promises - £2 billion more on the NHS, the Scottish Attainment Fund increased to £750 million, Job Grants, Increased Carers Allowance , Maternity and Early Years Allowance , etc.
There is some sensible stuff for business ; expansion of the Small Business Rate Relief system, a 50% reduction in Air Passenger Duty and a clear statement to provide 100% coverage of superfast broadband - difficult but a worthy objective in a country with our challenging geography.
There is, however, no sense of hard choices to be made or wider economic vision - just the tired old buzzwords of “equality” and “fairness”. The manifesto talks about continued support for entrepreneurship but then conspicuously fails to talk about anything which is supportive for entrepreneurs. The only business which is actually featured is a fudge manufacturer on Skye - Lovely I'm sure but is that really representative of the type of business which will drive our future prosperity? - sounds more like a candidate for the sugar tax.
There is evidence of downright hostility to business. Fracking for oil will not be permitted unless it can be proved “beyond any doubt” that it does not harm the environment, communities or public health. An industry which could help safeguard and protect many jobs is given a hurdle higher than is required to convict somebody for murder to be allowed to operate. This is weakness not strength , following not leading public opinion. The rights and freedoms of Trade Unions will be safeguarded - really? Is the right to rig elections and nearly strangle the Grangemouth oil refinery through intimidation the sort of rights we want to protect?
The tedious pantomime fiction of needless austerity carried out by wicked Tory witches who cut taxes for the rich (is somebody who earns £45,000 rich?) continues. There is no acceptance that Scotland is spending more than it earns, no mention of the need for public sector reform and efficiency.
All in all an opportunity lost - Grade D. Better than Kezia’s Grade E plans but it could and should have been so much better.
Pinstripe is a senior member of Scotland's financial services community.
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