STEVEN FORBES
One of the questions I get asked is what will happen to the markets as a result of the “Brexit” vote?
rom an investment point of view although the result of the vote will have an impact on markets in the short term I am not sure how much impact it will have on their long term returns.
Why? Well in the past month we have seen examples of what really matters to businesses, and therefore shareholders, and that is remaining relevant and profitable in a dramatically changing world.
How many younger people would admit to shopping in BHS?
Not many would be my guess, and although the pension scheme deficit has been given as a reason why potential buyers have been put off, it will take a massive rebranding exercise to turn this particular ship around.
At the end of last year, I ordered a suit from Austin Reed online and was staggered to find that it took nearly two weeks to arrive, which ended up being a couple of days after the event it was required.
Speaking to others I believe this was the norm when using their website, so it came as no surprise to me to learn they too have gone into administration.
It is not just “old economy” businesses that have to keep ahead of the game.
Apple shares fell by eight peer cent when they announced that sales of their iPhone fell by over 10 million units compared to the same period a year ago and as a result they announced their first ever fall in revenue.
Analysts believe that Apple’s business model will probably change to focus more on the services they can offer such as cloud storage, rather than increasing the sales of their products every year and if they do this there is every chance they will stay at the top of the tree, but it is a big ‘if’.
The truth is we are moving into uncharted territory with developments in technology moving at a greater pace than most of us can comprehend.
Google have logged over one million miles in their driverless car on the streets of California with only one “crash” when it hit a bus at two miles an hour.
Now personally I believe that it will be many years before we can legally sit in the back of a car and have a computer take us to our destination, but it may well be sooner than you think before you hop out of your car outside a restaurant and it self-parks in designated garages.
This technology already exists and using it would mean that more cars could be parked in the garages as there would be no need for enough space to be between them as doors would not need to be opened.
Also, I am pretty sure that computers would not crawl round a car park at five miles an hour looking for a space ten yards nearer the exit!
Airbnb, Uber, WhatsApp, businesses that barely existed five years ago have had a huge impact on hotels, taxis and telecom companies, and this is the tip of the iceberg.
The world is full of disruptive technology which will kill businesses if they rest on their laurels.
A generation of young adults is now in the workplace that has never known life without the internet; they expect instant service and to be able to do everything on their phone.
For older generations they expect excellent service.
Businesses that do not adapt to the longer term reality will struggle which is why top fund managers focus on this rather than the short term noise from a “Brexit” vote or presidential election.
You should too.
Steven Forbes is managing director, Alan Steel Asset Management
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