WHEN John Swinney met with George Osborne and Greg Hands at the Treasury on June 8 last year, the 'fiscal framework' appeared to be no more than an exercise in dotting the 'i's' and crossing the 't's' of the Scotland Bill.
At that first meeting, Scotland's Finance Secretary, the UK Chancellor and his Treasury Chief Secretary discussed their general approach to the financial arrangements that would underpin the devolution of new tax and welfare powers to Holyrood.
No-one else gave it a second thought. It would all be done and dusted by the autumn, they assured us.
That seems such a long time ago.
Countless discussions between officials and nine face-to-face meetings between Mr Swinney and Mr Hands have taken place since then but the two sides remain deadlocked over how to reduce Scotland's annual block grant from the Treasury when Holyrood takes full control over income tax.
Time is now running out fast if they are to reach a deal and approve the Scotland Bill before the Holyrood election.
Before this week, the chances of that happening looked doomed.
The two sides had begun preparing the ground for failure. An undertaking to keep the talks secret collapsed as they argued the toss in public - and with increasingly combative language.
The Treasury's proposal would cost Scotland £3billion, all told, over a decade, Mr Swinney warned. The Treasury hit back, saying his plan, which would protect Scotland's budget from the effects of slower population growth, was not fair on English taxpayers.
Over the past few days, hopes of deal have grown.
David Cameron called Nicola Sturgeon to discuss the situation: a sign, perhaps, the Prime Minister was becoming aware of the political damage he would suffer if the talks broke down.
The First Minister then tore up the artificially tight deadline she set for a "Valentine's Day deal".
She also demonstrated her commitment to gaining the new powers when she promised to set out how she would use them, whatever the in the SNP's election manifesto.
The pledge silenced claims the SNP wanted to wreck the process to avoid tough questions on tax and welfare.
Since then, however, the two governments have continued to trade blows over the proposals on the table and the mood in the two camps changes by the hour.
Deal or no deal? Right now it looks slightly more likely than not that it will happen. But don't bet on it.
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