Nicola Sturgeon could call a second Scottish independence referendum in the autumn of 2017, with a vote on the future of the UK then held in May or June of 2018, the former chief executive of the Yes Scotland campaign has said.
Blair Jenkins said he did not believe the First Minister would call for a second vote on independence until after Theresa May has commenced formal procedures for the UK to leave the European Union.
He predicted a referendum could be a called about a year from now, after the Prime Minister has triggered Article 50 and a "broad outline" of the Brexit deal has emerged.
Mr Jenkins said in those circumstances he would expect Scots to get a second chance to vote on independence in May or June the following year.
He told the i newspaper: "Nicola Sturgeon couldn't call a referendum until after Article 50 has been triggered.
"You couldn't call a referendum without having some idea of what Scotland's position will be in relation to the EU.
"I would have thought that if Article 50 was triggered by the UK in the first quarter of next year, the broad outline of the Brexit deal is likely to be apparent by the autumn.
"That would look like the earliest time at which the First Minister is likely to announce a second referendum. I imagine you'd then be looking at May or June 2018 as the earliest possible date."
Former SNP leader and First Minister Alex Salmond has already said he expects another ballot to be held in ''roughly two years' time'' following the result of the European referendum - which saw the UK as a whole vote to leave the EU, even though nearly two thirds of Scots chose to remain.
But Kenny MacAskill, who was justice secretary in Mr Salmond's cabinet, has warned warned against a ''headlong rush'' to a second independence referendum, urging Ms Sturgeon to instead ''await the optimum time'' for a fresh vote.
He said this was because if Scots again voted to stay part of the UK, as they did in 2014, ''glorious defeat would put the dream back catastrophically'' for independence supporters.
An SNP spokesman said: "The First Minister has repeatedly made clear that the Scottish Government is exploring all possible avenues to protect Scotland's place in Europe, in line with the overwhelming vote to remain - and those options must include independence if it becomes clear it is the best or only way of doing so."
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel