For the outsider, one of the perennial mysteries of US politics is the Electoral College: What is it? Why does it exist? And who are they? The answers are historical and political; it’s a relic from the founding fathers, a “grand compromise” (or fudge) that still fundamentally governs who ends up becoming leader of the Western world.
The central point is that the next US president will be elected indirectly rather than directly. Americans actually choose representatives called “electors”, who in turn select the president and vice-president. The number of electors is roughly equivalent to each State’s presence in Congress and, with a couple of exceptions, most States choose theirs on a winner-takes-all basis.
This produces a curious dynamic in presidential elections which takes some getting used to. Last week, for example, I was in Anchorage, the largest city in a State that gets only three Electoral College votes, which usually back the Republican nominee, while in Washington and Oregon (the next two States on my itinerary) their greater number of electors tend to side with the Democratic candidate.
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But given the certainty of that happening, much like “safe” seats in elections to the House of Commons, campaigning naturally focuses on States where Electoral College votes could go either way, which this year is only a dozen or so. So not only did I speak to several people who volunteered the fact their State “didn’t matter” in this election but, as a result, the official GOP and Democrat campaigns tend to ignore whole swathes of the country.
Now turnout is generally low even in presidential elections – in 2012 it was just 55 per cent – and this disconnect between most US voters and their leader perhaps explains why, although general elections do increase participation in other contests on the “ticket”, both local and State-wide. But the two candidates’ energy is directed at so-called “swing” or “battleground” States, which is why Donald Trump kept name-checking Ohio and Michigan in Monday evening’s televised debate.
There is another (potential) anomaly: the popular vote doesn’t necessarily align with that in the Electoral College, where an absolutely majority of votes (270) guarantees the presidency. No one doubted, for example, that Al Gore had won more votes than George W. Bush in 2000, but the outcome hinged upon Florida’s electors. This was only the fourth such instance, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen again.
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In Seattle, another unimportant city in an unimportant State, I asked two ladies about the election, the Electoral College, and whether it meant Trump might become president. They pondered this for a while before offering me a different, but in some respects typically American perspective. “God,” they told me in all seriousness, “will decide.”
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