SENIOR players in the Scotch whisky industry might, you would imagine, be sleeping a bit more soundly if the huge investment in new capacity were being accompanied by even a bit of growth in exports.

The latest figures, published this week by the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), show the total value of the industry’s exports dropped for a third consecutive year in 2015, against a difficult global economic backdrop.

The SWA said the value of Scotch whisky exports totalled £3.86 billion in 2015, down by 2.4 per cent on the preceding year. It took heart from a slowing of the rate of decline, with Scotch exports having fallen by seven per cent to £3.95bn in 2014.

The slide in exports in recent years had coincided with bold decisions by major Scotch whisky distillers, including Chivas owner Pernod Ricard, Macallan and Famous Grouse producer Edrington, and Diageo, to invest heavily in new capacity. The last few years have also seen new Scotch whisky distilleries open up.

So should we be worried that the industry might, once again, find itself suffering from significant over-capacity in years to come?

The SWA, apparently, is not losing sleep over any such worries.

The press release detailing the fall in exports carried the headings: “Optimistic outlook for Scotch whisky exports” and “Growth opportunities despite global economic uncertainty”.

While to some degree reassuring, such a bullish take on things is unlikely to be enough to dispel questions over the wisdom of such a major increase in capacity. The Scotch whisky industry is, after all, one that has seen dramatic cycles in the past, with distilleries sadly mothballed when supply has outstripped demand.

In recent times, we have had the opposite experience, with distilleries brought back to life and to full vigour, and new ones built.

It has been great to see a raft of new distillery openings. New arrivals include InchDairnie Distillery in Fife, which this week laid out ambitious plans, and Isle of Harris Distillery.

Of course, only time will give us the answer to the big question of how much capacity the Scotch whisky industry will actually need for future decades.

The job of running a Scotch whisky distiller has been likened to that of the captain of a supertanker. Given the length of time it takes for new spirit to become whisky, and for that to mature, things cannot be turned around suddenly in one direction or another as conditions change.

That said, it is the long-term picture on which Scotch whisky distillers have been focusing as they have geared up production.

And, in this context, the latest export figures perhaps provide some reasons to be cheerful.

Some of the setbacks last year related to short-term factors. The weak oil price weighed on the economies of Brazil, Russia, and some African countries and consequently on Scotch exports to these markets.

Meanwhile, the SWA flagged a return to growth of exports to China. This was evident both in direct exports to the Communist nation and in sales to Singapore, a key distribution hub for various countries in Asia, including China.

Emphasising the long-term picture, it said: “The demographics and speed of social change occurring in China provide a solid foundation for exports going forward. Scotch has under… one per cent of the Chinese spirits market, so the prospects are significant.”

Most importantly of all, the Scotch whisky sector continues to move upmarket, with exports of single malts rising to £916.4 million last year from £914m in 2014 and the SWA flagging the success of premium blends.

As the Scotch industry targets new consumers in dynamic markets such as China and India, and aims to continue pleasing longstanding whisky drinkers in crucial markets such as the US, Taiwan and France, such “premiumisation” is likely to stand it in good stead.

Looking back over the last decade, the major move upmarket by the industry is plain to see. The volume of Scotch exports in 2015, at 1.16 billion bottles, represented an increase of 10 per cent over the space of a decade. The value of Scotch exports, over the same period, leapt by 56 per cent.

Single malts accounted for nearly 25 per cent of the value of Scotch whisky exports in 2015, up from 18 per cent five years ago.

We are undoubtedly in difficult and uncertain times. And fears of a vote for the UK to exit the European Union are looming horribly over many sectors. Hopefully, Brexit will not come to pass. If it does, the Scotch industry will be among those likely to be hit hard.

However, in terms of the recent dip in Scotch exports, we must keep things in perspective. Yes, there have been three straight years of decline, but from a record level of £4.27bn in 2012.

A lot of the investment is going into premium Scotch, and new distilleries with something different to offer. This all seems to fit well with the way the market is heading. What is more, amid an increasing focus on healthy lifestyles, value rather than volume is surely the way to go for alcoholic drinks companies.

We will not know for many years whether the long-term demographic trends in China and India and various other emerging markets will, along with growth in major Scotch export destinations such as the US, France, and Taiwan, produce enough demand for the new production coming on stream.

In the meantime, we should certainly not be downhearted. These are tough economic times indeed and the Scotch whisky industry, as well as taking the right path in moving ever more towards premium products in a fast-changing world, is actually still doing pretty well.