As leaders of the European Union’s three biggest remaining members met this week to plan the future direction of the union without the UK, it was left once again to Nicola Sturgeon to highlight what Brexit will likely mean for Britain and, more specifically, Scotland.
The First Minister’s speech yesterday concentrated on the economic fallout and, if the Scottish Government’s analysis is anything to go by, the outlook is bleak indeed.
According to the research, by 2030 the Leave vote will cost Scotland’s economy between £1.7 and £11.2 billion every year. Tax revenue, meanwhile, was projected to be hit annually by between £1.7 and £3.7 billion.
Critics on the pro-Brexit side will no doubt be quick to criticise the figures; there’s no denying that potentially being out by £9.5bn – the difference between the lowest and highest projected figures – is problematic.
But whether the loss ends up being at the lower or higher end of the spectrum, the economic reality is the same: hardship for ordinary Scots. Ms Sturgeon is not only right to discuss the findings of the analysis, but surely her position as first minister means it is incumbent on her to do so. After all, any such losses would be bound to have a severe impact on public spending.
She is also right to suggest the figures represent further evidence that Scotland’s relationship with the EU must be protected.
Following the speech, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson urged the first minister to concentrate on stabilising the country in the wake of the vote. But considering it was her party, albeit in Westminster, that created the volatile situation we now find ourselves in, any such advice is ironic to say the least.
It should also be pointed out that although Ms Davidson campaigned for a Remain vote, it is her Brexit-supporting party colleagues who are still trying to pull the wool over the electorate’s eyes by claiming that since the world didn’t end in the days and weeks following the vote, nothing much will change.
Indeed, diminished economic projections over the last few weeks, taken alongside the dramatic action announced by the Bank of England in a bid to fend off recession – interest rates reduced to 0.25 per cent, a massive hike in quantitative easing - suggest a very different narrative: the UK is teetering on the brink of real trouble.
As pointed out on these pages last week, recent stock market highs have been more than cancelled out by the plunges in gilt yields we’ve witnessed, which have badly hit pension schemes.
And with the Bank of England making it clear interest rates may have to be brought down even further to stimulate the economy, the bright new future promised by Ms Davidson’s colleagues is increasingly difficult to envisage.
With this in mind, Ms Sturgeon should be applauded for her focus on getting the best deal possible for Scotland. How this will be achieved and what it will mean for our country’s constitutional future remains unclear, of course. One thing is for sure, however: the stakes for all of us are worryingly high.
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