AS the UK’s first shipment of US shale gas arrived by boat in Scotland but struggled to dock in high winds, the inclement weather appeared to symbolise the fierce debate around the future of fracking.
Whether energy giant Ineos will eventually find the calm waters needed to take forward plans to frack in Scotland, or whether public opinion pressure will blow them off course, remains unclear. But make no mistake, to frack or not to frack is one of the most important political and economic questions of the day; our increasing hunger for cheap and reliable energy, at a time of reducing reliance on fossil fuels when the geo-political situation grows more unstable, remains a difficult circle to square in most modern democracies.
This makes it all the more crucial that our policy-makers examine the scientific evidence around this most controversial of energy sources - some say fracking is unsafe and damaging to the environment - and be prepared to take decisions that are pragmatic as well as politically expedient.
The Scottish Government’s moratorium on fracking bought it some breathing space on this thorny issue. But with experts due to start reporting back on safety and environmental impacts over the next few months, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon must prepare herself to finally grasp the thistle.
No matter which way she choose to go, Ms Sturgeon will have to carefully assess the political consequences for her party; many of those who joined the SNP after the independence referendum - and indeed some of her own MPs, including Martyn Day, whose Linlithgow and East Falkirk constituency is directly affected by Ineos’s plans - are ardently against fracking, while both UK and Scottish Labour are now in favour of a ban.
The UK Government, meanwhile, and unions including the GMB, are in favour of fracking.
There are many voices to be heard, of course, not least those representing communities where the fracking would take place . But primarily the First Minister must judge what is best for the country as a whole at a time of continuing post-Brexit economic fragility - energy costs will be central to both business and household planning in the uncertain years to come.
Ineos chief Jim Ratcliffe has made it clear that fracking is a key part of his company’s future - and thus the country’s entire energy output. His Grangemouth refinery, which employs 1,300 workers, produces the bulk of fuels used in Scotland and is thought to contribute 3 per cent of Scottish GDP. No business should force a government’s hand on any issue, but at the same time it would be naive to think Ineos will not have some influence over Scotland’s future energy strategy.
Green energy has huge potential in Scotland, of course, and we should pursue the opportunities it offers. But it is not yet strong or cheap enough to meet our expanding energy needs. With this and the difficulties currently being experienced by the North Sea oil industry in mind, it is becoming increasingly clear that if found to be safe, fracking should form part of the mix. Whether Ms Sturgeon has the stomach to sanction this remains to be seen.
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